The Union of Concerned Scientists, along with professors from Penn State and representatives of the Governor's Office and the Pennsylvania Environmental Council, this week release a new report detailing the potential impacts of global warming on Pennsylvania, in particular the agriculture industry and forests.

Watch the participants in these special Video Blog presentations:

>>Lance Pierce, Union of Concerned Scientists Climate Program Director, gave an overview of the report;

>>Ray Najjar, Penn State Associate Professor of Meteorology and Geosciences, gave details on the potential weather, fish and forest impacts;

>>Shelby Fleischer, Penn State Professor of Entomology, provided an overview of the potential impacts to agriculture;

>>Donna Cooper, Secretary of Policy and Planning for Gov. Rendell, reviewed the steps taken already by Pennsylvania to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and urged passage of additional legislation yet this year;

>>John Walliser, Pennsylvania Environmental Council, commented on the importance of the new report as part of Pennsylvania's efforts to develop aclimate change action planand its relationship toPEC's Climate Roadmap for Pennsylvania.

The report saysPennsylvania is faced with two very different possible futures.

If global warming emissions are not significantly curtailed, by late this century summer temperatures could exceed 90 degrees daily in southern parts of the state, some tree species could decline sharply, and farmers could suffer major losses, the report concluded.

Conversely, if global warming emissions are reduced significantly, state residents would experience only about half as many "extreme heat" days every summer, the tree species that produce colorful fall foliage would not disappear from the state, and Pennsylvania farmers would be better able to adapt.

The report, "Climate Change in Pennsylvania: Impacts and Solutions for the Keystone State," is a follow-up to a report released last year by UCS and 50 independent scientists that analyzed climate change in the Northeast.

"Scientists are already seeing the effects of global warming in Pennsylvania, including less snow, more rainfall, drier summers and more days with extreme heat," said Melanie Fitzpatrick, UCS's Northeast impacts science coordinator. "And if we continue to rely primarily on coal, oil and natural gas, by late this century the annual average temperature in Pennsylvania could rise 12 degrees above the long-term average. But if we reduce our emissions, we may cut projected warming by half. Temperatures are going to go up, but there is still time to avoid the worst."

The report's findings for south central Pennsylvania include:

Climate: By mid-century, most of south central Pennsylvania is expected to experience between 40 to 70 summer days with temperatures higher than 90 degrees if emissions continue unabated. By late this century, the mercury could top 90 degrees nearly every summer day. Summer would feel more like those today in southern Georgia. Under a lower-emissions scenario, warming would be curtailed, and summers would be more like those today in Virginia.

Health: Pennsylvania could experience a dramatic increase in the number of dangerous heat days under a business-as-usual, higher-emissions scenario. By late century, for example, Harrisburg is projected to face 26 days with temperatures higher than 100 degrees. Under the lower-emissions path, Harrisburg would experience approximately seven days per year of such temperatures.

Agriculture: Scientists expect the yield and quality of key crops, including sweet corn, Concord grapes and apples, to decline if emissions continue to grow. Cutting emissions would give farmers more time adapt, including switching to different varieties and other crops. Cutting emissions also would help the dairy industry. Under the higher-emissions scenario, milk production is projected to decline 15 to 20 percent due to heat stress on cows. Under the lower-emissions scenario, production would drop 10 percent at most.

Forests:I f emissions are not significantly curbed, scientists expect the state to become unsuitable for the economically valuable black cherry tree by late century, and for the maple, beech and birch forests that produce the state's brilliant fall foliage.

Fish: As water temperatures warm, some streams and rivers may become inhospitable for two of the state's premier sport fish: trout and smallmouth bass.

Snow: Because of global warming emissions already in the atmosphere, the state's traditional white winters are expected to all but disappear by mid-century. Sometime in the next several decades, ski resorts in eastern Pennsylvania will no longer be able to count on being open 100 days per year, including the week between Christmas and New Year's day, to ensure solvency.

Pennsylvania cannot reduce global warming alone, but it can -- and should -- play a leadership role, Fitzpatrick said. "The state is important because it exports energy to nearby states and is a surprisingly large source of heat-trapping emissions," she said. "It's the third-highest emitting state in the United States and emits more than most countries."

The state already has taken several important steps to address the problem. For example, it has recruited several renewable energy technology companies to build manufacturing facilities in the state, and is supporting the growth of wind-generated electricity by purchasing large quantities of "green power."

But Pennsylvania can do significantly more, Fitzpatrick said. The state should require coal-fired power plants in the state to replace a percentage of the coal they burn with biomass. It also should ban construction of new coal-fired plants unless they can capture and store their carbon emissions.

At the federal level, the state's congressional delegation should support strong legislation to reduce emissions nationwide and promote renewable energy sources.

The full report is available online.

For more information, visit EPEC's Climate Change Roadmap for PAand theDEP Climate Change Advisory Committeewebpages.

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10/3/2008