On April 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook which projects solar and wind renewable energy’s share of electricity generation will keep rising and lead to a decline in natural gas generation.

‘We forecast that the annual share of U.S. electricity generation from renewable energy sources will rise from 20% in 2021, to 22% in 2022, and to 23% in 2023, as a result of continuing increases in solar and wind generating capacity.

“This increase in renewable generation leads to a decline in natural gas generation, which falls from a 37% share in 2021 to 35% in both 2022 and 2023.

“Natural gas generation falls in the forecast even though we expect the cost of natural gas for power generation to fall from an average of $5.85/MMBtu in 2Q22 to an annual average of $4.21/MMBtu in 2023.

“Although new natural gas-fired power generating units are scheduled to come online in 2022, they are likely to be run at lower utilization rates than in recent years.

“Increasing renewable generation also contributes to our forecast that the share of generation from coal will fall from 23% in both 2021 and 2022 to 21% by 2023.

“A major contributor to coal’s declining generation share next year will be the retirement of coal-fired generating capacity during 2022.

“Nuclear generation remains relatively constant in the forecast at an average share of 20%. Although one nuclear reactor will be retired during 2022, that loss will be offset by the opening of one new 1.1 GW reactor late in 2022, which will be the first new nuclear reactor to open in the United States since 2016.

New Wind, Solar Capacity

“Planned additions to U.S. wind and solar capacity in 2022 and 2023 increase electricity generation from those sources in our forecast.

“We estimate that the U.S. electric power sector added 14 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity in 2021. We expect 10 GW of new wind capacity will come online in 2022 and 4 GW in 2023.

“Utility-scale solar capacity rose by 13 GW in 2021. Our forecast for added utility-scale solar capacity is 20 GW for 2022 and 24 GW for 2023.

“We expect solar additions to account for nearly half of new electric generating capacity in 2022. In addition, in 2021 small-scale solar increased by 5 GW to a total of 33 GW.

“We expect small-scale solar capacity (systems less than 1 megawatt) will grow by 4 GW in 2022 and by almost 6 GW in 2023.”

Natural Gas Prices

“In March, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), which was up from the February average of $4.69/MMBtu, as inventory withdrawals slightly outpaced the five-year (2017–2021) average.

“We expect liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will increase from March levels, contributing to a Henry Hub price of $5.95/MMBtu for April.

“We expect the Henry Hub price will average $5.68/MMBtu in 2Q22 and $5.23/MMBtu for all of 2022.

“We expect the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.01/MMBtu in 2023. The forecast drop in prices for 2023 reflects our expectation that storage levels will be higher during 2023 than in 2022.”

LNG Exports

“In March, U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), an increase of 0.7 Bcf/d from February.

“LNG prices in Europe remain high amid supply uncertainties due to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine and the need to replenish Europe’s natural gas inventories, which has kept Europe’s demand for LNG elevated.

“Inventories in Europe were 26% full as of March 31, compared with the five-year average of 34%.

“We expect high levels of U.S. LNG exports to continue in 2022, averaging 12.2 Bcf/d for the year, a 25% increase from 2021.”

Oil Production

“U.S. crude oil production in the forecast averages 12.0 million b/d in 2022, up 0.8 million b/d from 2021. We forecast production to increase another 0.9 million b/d in 2023 to average almost 13.0 million b/d, surpassing the previous annual average record of 12.3 million b/d set in 2019.”

“We expect the Brent price will average $108/b in 2Q22 and $102/b in the second half of 2022 (2H22). We expect the average price to fall to $93/b in 2023. However, this price forecast is highly uncertain. Actual price outcomes will depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions, and independent corporate actions affect Russia’s oil production or the sale of Russia’s oil in the global market.”

“We expect U.S. prices for retail gasoline will average $3.84 per gallon (gal) this summer (April–September), which would be up from $3.06/gal last summer and the highest price (adjusted for inflation) since the summer of 2014.

“Retail diesel prices for the summer average $4.57/gal in the forecast, which would also be the highest inflation-adjusted price for the summer since 2014.”

CO2 Emissions

“U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by more than 6% in 2021 as economic activity increased and contributed to rising energy use.

“We expect a 2% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022, primarily from growing transportation-related petroleum consumption.

“Forecast energy-related CO2 emissions remain almost unchanged in 2023.

“We expect petroleum emissions to increase by 4% in 2022 compared with 2021, though this growth rate slows to less than 1% in 2023.

“Natural gas emissions are relatively flat in 2022 and then increase by 2% in our forecast for 2023. We forecast that coal-related CO2 emissions will grow by 3% in 2022 and then fall 6% in 2023.”

Click Here for the complete Short-Term Energy Outlook.

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[Posted: April 12, 2022]

4/18/2022