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PJM Interconnection Reports Higher Percentage Of Natural Gas-Fired Electric Generation Outages Than Originally Thought During Winter Storm Elliott - 70%

On July 17, the PJM Interconnection released its Winter Storm Elliott Event Analysis and Recommendation Report which reviews the circumstances leading up to the December 2022 storm, assesses performance of the system during the event and identifies recommendations to help improve grid reliability.

PJM is now reporting forced outages of natural gas-fired electric generation accounted for 70% of the total outages, coal 16% and the remainder were oil, nuclear, hydro, wind and solar.

A report in April by PJM said natural gas accounted for about 63% of forced outages, coal 28%, oil 4%, nuclear 2%, hydro 1% and “other” 1%. Read more here.

A key recommendation in the report would change the assumptions of generation capacities for natural gas-fired electric generation from 95% in the summer to from 63% to 76% in the winter to match the actual performance of these units.

The report follows similar findings from other groups that have independently assessed the performance of natural gas generation in both winter and extreme summer conditions.

Commissioner Stephen DeFrank, Vice Chairman of the Public Utility Commission, told the House Consumer Protection, Technology and Utilities Committee in June--

“I think that Winter Storm Elliot, over the Christmas holiday, showed some vulnerabilities in our grid and in our system. Particularly from the amount of generators that did not show, we had over 40,000 megawatts not respond, with little to no notice to the grid operator."

"But we also learned over the Christmas holiday that natural gas resources can also be intermittent, whenever we have those drastic drops of temperatures like we experienced. The issues were actually at the wellhead.

“It was not at capacity agreements, we had hard commitments for natural gas at generators that simply did not show." Read more here.

Other Findings

The report emphasizes that PJM maintained system reliability and served customers throughout the extreme weather that affected the region Dec. 23–25, and even was able to support its neighbors during certain periods.

PJM operators were able to avoid electricity interruptions, although they had to implement multiple emergency procedures and issue a public appeal to reduce energy use.

“PJM was prepared for the 2022/2023 winter, as well as Winter Storm Elliott, based on the information available, and conducted extensive preparations and communications with members, adjacent systems and the natural gas industry in advance of the storm, in addition to the regular steps PJM takes each year to prepare for winter,” according to the report.

PJM’s annual pre-winter analysis indicated the system would have enough generation to meet load even under a combination of extreme and unlikely conditions, including pipeline disruptions, close-to-zero wind/solar generation, high outages and extreme weather.

Despite numerous refinements to both the capacity market rules and winter preparation requirements since the 2014 Polar Vortex, “Winter Storm Elliott created a convergence of circumstances that strained the grid,” according to the report.

Elliott’s rapidly falling temperatures coincided with a holiday weekend, which combined to produce unprecedented demand for December. PJM’s load forecasts for Dec. 23 and Dec. 24 were approximately 8% under the actual peak.

Recognizing the forecasting challenges presented by the volatile weather patterns and the holiday weekend, PJM operators scheduled prudently on both days, calling for generation resources in excess of the actual load and reserve requirements.

This situation was further complicated by the unexpected loss of generation resources. Most outages were caused by equipment failure, likely from the extreme cold, but broader issues of gas availability also added to the outage rate.

PJM’s analysis of its experience keeping the lights on throughout the storm for 65 million customers in 13 states and Washington, D.C., drives 30 recommendations contained in the report.

The recommendations focus broadly on:

-- Addressing winter risk with enhancements to market rules, accreditation, forecasting and modeling

-- Improving generator performance through winterization requirements, unit status reporting and testing/verification

-- Tackling long-standing gaps in gas-electric coordination, including timing mismatches between gas and electric markets, the liquidity of the gas market on weekends/holidays, and the alignment of the electricity market with gas-scheduling nomination cycles

-- Evaluating how the Performance Assessment Interval (PAI) system of rewarding or penalizing generator performance is impacted by exports of electricity to other regions, whether excusal rules can be simplified, PAI triggers need to be refined, and if the contributions of Demand Response and Energy Efficiency are accurately valued

-- Pursuing opportunities with Generation Owners, other members and states to improve education, drilling and communication regarding PJM’s emergency procedures, Call for Conservation and PAIs

Many of these recommendations are being developed through the Critical Issue Fast Path – Resource Adequacy process or other forums, including the Electric Gas Coordination Senior Task Force, Operating Committee and Market Implementation Committee.

Click Here to read the report and recommendations.

July 24 Report Workshop

The report will be presented and discussed at the Winter Storm Elliott Report Workshop, 9 a.m. to noon on Monday, July 24 (please note that the workshop was originally scheduled for July 25 and has been moved up one day).

Visit the PJM Interconnection website for more information affecting the operational of the regional electric grid.

PJM is a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, including Pennsylvania.

NewsClip:

-- Utility Dive: PJM Interconnection Report: Natural Gas-Fired Electric Generation Accounted For 70% Of Unplanned Outages In Winter Storm Elliott

Related Articles - Winter Storm Elliot:

-- PUC Vice Chairman: During Winter Storm Elliot We Learned Natural Gas Can Be An Intermittent Generator Of Electricity Just Like Renewables [PaEN]

-- S&P Global: Federal Inquiry Finds Same 3 Causes Driving U.S. Electric Generation Outages In Extreme Cold - Reliability Of Natural Gas System Remains A Concern [PaEN]

-- Senate Hearing: Wholesale Electricity Prices Too Low To Support Coal, Natural Gas Power Plants In Market; Natural Gas Reliability Issues Will Continue [PaEN]

-- Senate Hearing On Electric Grid Reliability: Natural Gas Continues To Have Reliability Problems; Renewables Aren’t Coming Online Fast Enough; Energy Office To Be Proposed [PaEN]

-- PJM This Week Sends Penalty Assessments Of Up To $2 Billion To Electric Generators That Failed To Perform During December’s Winter Storm Elliot; Natural Gas Power Plants Had 63% Of Outages [PaEN]

-- PJM’s Preliminary Review Of Christmas Storm Electric Generation Failures Shows Natural Gas Units Failed To Provide Power At Over Triple The Rate Of Other Generation [PaEN]

PA Oil & Gas Industry Public Notice Dashboards

-- PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices/Opportunities To Comment - July 22 [PaEN]

-- Susquehanna River Basin Commission Aug. 10 Hearing On Proposed Water Withdrawals, Including 8 Related To Shale Gas Drilling Operations, 1 In Exceptional Value Loyalsock Creek [PaEN]