On May 2, PJM Interconnection, the regional electricity grid operator that includes Pennsylvania, announced it expects to meet summer electricity demand in 2024, though continuing generator retirements and increasing demand continue to erode reserve levels for the operator of the nation’s largest electrical grid.

Tighter reserves could result in the use of demand response or additional emergency procedures under scenarios involving extreme heat combined with significant generator outages.

“We plan throughout the year to make sure we have enough resources to serve load at the hottest time of the year,” said PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. “But we are concerned that new generation is not coming online fast enough to replace retiring resources, and that subsequent years may be more challenging.”

Loss Of Generation Resources

The system is experiencing what PJM forecast in its 2023 Resource Retirements, Replacements and Risks (PDF) paper: The loss of generation resources is outpacing the addition of replacement resources amid accelerating growth in consumers’ demand for electricity.

It is an issue confronting grid operators throughout North America.

That means PJM has fewer generation resources to draw on this summer compared with 2023 – approximately 182,500 MW of installed generating capacity is available in 2024 to meet customer needs, compared with approximately 186,500 MW of installed capacity last summer.

Higher Peak Demand Than Last Summer

PJM also projects higher peak demand for electricity this summer at approximately 151,000 MW compared with the 2023 summer peak load of 147,000 MW.

PJM’s all-time, one-day highest power use was recorded in the summer of 2006 at 165,563 MW.

One megawatt can power about 800 homes.

Although PJM has performed reliability studies at loads exceeding 164,000 MW, the increased peak load forecast combined with reduced generating capacity reduces reserve margins for extreme weather scenarios.

Scenarios that include this higher level of demand, combined with low solar and wind output and/or high generator outages, would further reduce reserve margins.

In these unlikely but possible set of circumstances, PJM might have to implement additional procedures to manage emergencies, including demand response, calls for conservation, limits on electricity exports, or even temporary service interruptions.

Above-Average Temperatures

The National Weather Service predicts above-average temperatures this summer for the entire PJM footprint, as well as wetter conditions than normal. However, PJM and our members also need to be prepared for more extreme weather scenarios.

“With increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, we need to also prepare for more extreme weather conditions,” said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President – Operations, Planning and Security. “We will continue to work with our utility partners and stakeholders to refine our planning, analysis and communications of the risks presented by any challenging weather patterns this summer.”

Predicting the demand for electricity helps procure an adequate supply of power today and in the years ahead.

 Making these predictions – called load forecasting – is a job PJM does routinely, for both short- and long-term periods, to help acquire an adequate supply of power for reliable service at the most reasonable cost.

A dedicated team of operators uses sophisticated technology to balance supply and demand and direct the power grid 24/7 from PJM’s control rooms.

They prepare multiple potential scenarios that could be impacted by weather, emergency conditions or equipment failure.

They adjust resource output with changes in demand and ensure that no transmission lines or facilities are overloaded.

The team also watches for unusual conditions and reacts to them to protect the electricity supply.

PJM Interconnection coordinates the movement of electricity through all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Visit the PJM Interconnection website for more information.

Resource Links:

-- Utility Dive Guest Essay: FERC, NERC Review Of Winter Storm Gas Infrastructure Failures Lacks Transparency, Provided Insufficient Scrutiny On Impacts - By Union Of Concerned

-- Pennsylvania’s Electric Grid Is Dependent On One Fuel To Generate 59% Of Our Electricity; Market Moving To Renewables + Storage [PaEN]

-- Gov. Shapiro On Republican Reaction To His Energy Plan: They’ve Done Nothing And Power ‘Plants Have Closed On Their Watch;’ They’re ‘Used To Doing Nothing;’ ‘Doing Nothing Is Not Acceptable’  [PaEN]

PA Oil & Gas Industry Public Notice Dashboards:

-- PA Oil & Gas Weekly Compliance Dashboard - April 27 to May 3 - Hunting Abandoned Quaker State Wells; Conventional Well Dumpster Fire; Multiple Water Withdrawal Violations  [PaEN]

-- PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - May 4 [PaEN]

-- DEP Posted 73 Pages Of Permit-Related Notices In May 4 PA Bulletin  [PaEN] 

Related Articles This Week:

-- Senate Republicans Pass Bill Authorizing An Authority To Take Over Permitting Large-Scale Energy Projects; Eliminating Public Comment; Waiving Any Regulation; Providing Immunity From Prosecution; Barbers Reviewing Permits?  [PaEN]

-- Bill Reported Out Of Senate Committee Would Allow Pipelines Like Mariner East To Apply For Waivers Of Any PUC Regulation, Law Or Policy  [PaEN]

-- Conventional Oil & Gas Industry Says It’s A ‘Terrific Lie’ To Say It Is Responsible For Abandoning Thousands Of Wells; Industry To Change Definition So They Can Avoid Responsibility  [PaEN]

-- EDF: US House Passes Bill To Locate Abandoned/Orphaned Conventional Oil & Gas Wells, Improve Well Plugging Technology [PaEN]

-- PJM Interconnection Anticipates Adequate Electric Generation Resources To Meet Summer Demand Under 'Anticipated Conditions'  [PaEN]

NewsClips:

-- Capital & Main: US Oil/Gas Production Is Booming; So Are The Industry’s Donations To Its Republican Allies [PA Will See A ‘Flood Of Money From The Industry’]

-- PennLive: PA Senate Republicans Pass Bill Allowing Large-Scale Energy Projects To Bypass State Agencies

-- PA Capital-Star: PA Senate Committee Advances Bill To Allow Utility Companies To Request A Waiver For Any Law Or Regulation Enforced By The PUC [Senate Bill 1174]

-- ABC27: Environmental Advocacy Groups Rally At Capitol For Action On Gas, Oil Industry

-- Sen. Muth, Environmental Advocates Join Author Justin Nobel At Capitol To Discuss Oil/Gas Industry Hazardous Waste

-- The Allegheny Front: New Book Takes On Radiation Dangers In Oil & Gas Industry

-- Center For Coalfield Justice, Partners Host May 4 Book Signing In Washington County With Justin Nobel, Author of Petroleum 238: Big Oil's Dangerous Secret  [PaEN]

-- Better Path Coalition: On Demand: Brown Bag Briefing By Justi Nobel On His New Book Petroleum 238: Big Oil’s Dangerous Secret And the Grassroots Fight To Stop It

-- Post-Gazette - Anya Litvak: Ohio AG Wants PA’s Austin Master Services CEO Jailed For Failing To Cleanup Oil & Gas Waste Plant In Martins Ferry

-- The Allegheny Front: Ohio AG Wants PA Company Held In Contempt For Failing To Cleanup Radioactive Oil & Gas Waste

-- Beaver County Radio: Study: PA Ranks High For Health Impacts Of Oil & Gas Flaring Emissions

-- Post-Gazette Guest Essay: State Agencies Aren’t Listening To The People Who Produce Energy As The Develop Policy - By Mark Caskey, Steel Nation [Gas Industry-Related Business]

-- Williamsport Editorial: LNG Gas Permit Ban Is Simply Unreasonable  [The Pause-- Not Ban--  Is On NEW Export Projects, LNG Export Capacity Will Double During Pause; PA Shale Gas Coalition Wants To Export PA Gas To China, Our Competitor] 

-- Inside Climate News: Shell Petrochemical Plant In Beaver County Promised Prosperity, But To Some Residents It’s Become A ‘Shockingly Bad’ Neighbor 

-- WHYY - Susan Phillips: Green Hydrogen: A Climate Change Solution Or Fossil Fuel Bait And Switch?

-- Reuters: Texas Gas Producers Turn To Flaring To Dispose Of Excess Natural Gas Amid Weak Prices  [Will PA Producers Do The Same?]

-- Bloomberg: Federal Trade Commission Alleges Shale Producer Scott Sheffield [Pioneer]  Tried To Collude With OPEC To Prop Up Crude Oil Prices By Coordinating Production Levels

-- Bloomberg: Texas Utility Makes Case Pipeline Prices Unfairly Drove Up Gas Prices In 2021 Storm

-- Reuters: US Oil, Gas Production Rebounds In Feb. After Extensive Winter Storm Disruptions

-- WSJ: In America’s Biggest Oil/Gas Field, The Ground Is Swelling And Buckling

[Posted: May 2, 2024]

5/6/2024