If heat-trapping emissions are not significantly curtailed, global warming will substantially change critical aspects of the Northeast's character and economy, according to a new report by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, a two-year collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team of more than 50 scientists and economists.

Near-term choices about energy, transportation, and land-use will largely determine the extent and severity of climate change, according to the report.

"Global warming represents an enormous challenge, but we can meet it if we act swiftly," said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at UCS and chair of the NECIA team. "Our response to global warming in the next few years will shape the climate our children and grandchildren inherit."

In June, the Pennsylvania Environmental Council unveiled a proposed Climate Roadmap for Pennsylvania that contained many of the policy recommendations included in the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment.

“Pennsylvania has much to lose if significant action isn’t taken; but equally important we have much to gain, both economically and environmentally, by adopting comprehensive solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Brian Hill, President & CEO of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council. “Our state is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the world, but has already seen significant benefits from investment in renewable energy development. The Climate Change Roadmap report identifies a number of opportunities inherent in addressing climate change.

“For example, our leading industry – Agriculture – is projected to be greatly affected by climate change. But Agriculture can be part of the solution, whether through biofuel production or carbon sequestration. This is a win-win for our economy and the environment. Pennsylvania can and should be a leader on this issue."

The new report also details the challenges and opportunities for each state in the region.

“Here in Pennsylvania, and across the world, there is growing momentum to meet the climate challenge,” according to the report. “Of course our actions alone will not be sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change. But as a global leader in technology, industry, and innovation and a major source of heat-trapping emissions, Pennsylvania (and the rest of the Northeast) is well positioned to drive national and international action.”

Many of the report’s recommendations for mitigating the effects of climate-changing emissions were included in Gov. Rendell’s Energy Independence Strategy, which will be considered by the state legislature in a special session this fall.

The new NECIA report, reports focusing on Pennsylvania and other states in the region, and a complete list of collaborating scientists and economists.

The peer-reviewed report, "Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast," incorporates and builds on NECIA's 2006 study that described how the climate of the nine Northeast states will change under two scenarios: one that assumes an increase in global warming emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and another that assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report documents the projected consequences of each emissions path.

It also details what individuals, businesses, and governments can do today to reduce emissions to levels below the lower-emissions scenario and to adapt to the unavoidable changes already set in motion by emissions over the past several decades.

The report's findings include:

Climate: The two emissions scenarios would lead to starkly different climates when children born today reach middle age. Under the higher-emissions scenario, winters in the Northeast could warm by 8 to 12 degress and summers by 6 to 14 degress above historic levels by late this century. But under the lower-emission scenario, temperatures during Northeast winters are projected to warm only 5 to 8 degrees above historic levels by late-century, and summers by just 3 to 7 degrees.

Coastlines: Global sea level is conservatively projected to rise 10 to 23 inches under the higher-emissions scenario and 7 to 14 inches under the lower-emissions scenario

Agriculture: By late-century under the higher-emissions scenario, heat stress in cows is projected to cut milk production across much of the region by 5 to 20 percent in certain months, with the greatest losses in the key dairy state of Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, weed problems and pest-related damage are likely to escalate, increasing pressures on farmers to use more herbicides and pesticides. By contrast, changes expected under the lower-emissions scenario are generally much less extensive.

Marine Fisheries: As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the range of suitable habitat in the Northeast for many fish and shellfish species such as cod and lobster is projected to shift northward.

Winter Recreation and Tourism: Under the higher-emissions scenario, only western Maine is projected to retain a reliable ski season by the end of the century, and only northern New Hampshire would support a snowmobiling season longer than two months.

The Northeast cannot reduce global warming alone, but as a world leader in technology, finance and innovation-and a major source of heat-trapping emissions-the region is well-positioned to help drive national and international progress in reducing emissions.

The report concluded that sustained efforts to reduce emissions in the region-on the order of 80 percent below 2000 levels by mid-century and just over 3 percent per year on average over the next several decades-can help pull global emissions below the lower-emissions path used in this study.

"The Northeast has a tremendous opportunity to help lead us to a secure climate future. Fortunately, more and more people understand the stakes and are mobilizing around the problem. The time to act is now," said James McCarthy, professor of biological oceanography at Harvard University, vice-chair of the NECIA.

A copy of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment and information about PEC’s Climate Roadmap for Pennsylvania is available online.

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7/13/2007