The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported farmers in Pennsylvania intend to plant 40,000 more acres of corn and soybeans (a record) than they did last year. And with increased planting of row crops means increased demand for conservation services.

Across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed farmers intend to grow nearly 500,000 additional acres of corn, wheat and soybeans than they did just two years ago, an increase of more than 7 percent.

That's good news for farmers, who are responding to record high commodity prices caused by increased global food demand, crop failures in other parts of the world and a growing thirst for ethanol and other biofuels in the United States.

But as the row crop acreage increases, so does the potential for increasing nutrient and sediment runoff to Pennsylvania waters and the Bay.

A coalition of environmental, farm, businesses and municipal groups recently announced the Pennsylvania Fair Share for Clean Water Plan to help wastewater plant ratepayers and farmers finance improvements needed to address Chesapeake Bay and statewide water quality improvement mandates while preserving economic opportunity for future homeowners and businesses.

The groups include: Pennsylvania Municipal Authorities Association, Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, Pennsylvania Builders Association, Pennsylvania Association of Conservation Districts and the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. In addition, the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors and the Federation of Sportsmens Clubs voiced their support for the plan.

The seven-year plan includes $500 million to help finance a portion of the upgrades needed by 184 wastewater treatment plants in the region and $390 million to help farmers install conservation practices.

It's unclear from the USDA report where the additional acres will come from. But corn, soybeans and wheat-which account for the overwhelming majority of cropland in the region-are all relatively high runoff crops, meaning the land conversion could result in more nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment pollution unless efforts to curb runoff are stepped up.

"The planting intentions report shows further intensification of production, and whether it is corn or soybeans or wheat, when added together, there is an increase in high nutrient loss crop production," said Tom Simpson, a soil scientist with the University of Maryland's College of Agriculture and Natural Resources who chairs the Bay Program's Nutrient Subcommittee.

"Since I feel safe in assuming that acreage is not coming from orchards or vegetables, it has to be coming from pasture, idle lands or hay, which are low nutrient loss lands," Simpson said.

Last year, corn acreage in the region increased dramatically as prices jumped to $4 a bushel-driven in part by increasing demand for ethanol-and raised concerns about its impact on the Bay.

This year, corn plantings in the region are projected to drop 130,000 acres from last year to 3.6 million acres, but will remain 175,000 acres above 2006. Corn acreage is projected to decline in Maryland, Virginia and Delaware, but increase in Pennsylvania and remain the same in New York.

Corn is a particular concern because it has a reputation for being especially "leaky" in terms of fertilizer. It loses more nitrogen under typical growing conditions than any other major crop.

Corn prices have continued to rise, approaching a record $6 a bushel this year. But the national surge in corn production last year, which came in part at the expense of other crops, sharply boosted the price of soybeans and wheat as well.

Soybean acres are predicted to jump 190,000 acres in the five states to 1.85 million acres, with record plantings predicted in both Pennsylvania and New York. That's a concern because, although little nitrogen is applied to soybeans-it "fixes" what it needs from what's in the atmosphere-which leaves large amounts of the nutrient in the soil after harvest.

Wheat acres are expected to jump from 777,000 acres in 2007 to 940,000 acres this year.

Wheat generally leaks less nitrogen than corn and soybeans, but when wheat and soybeans on grown back to back on the same field in the same year-a practice known as double-cropping-the nitrogen losses can be similar to that of corn.

Altogether, the number of acres planted in the five Chesapeake Bay states is expected to increase by 223,000 acres over 2007, and by 472,000 acres over 2006.

That doesn't necessarily mean the acreage of land used for crops will grow by that amount. Some of that increase is likely caused by an increase in wheat-soybean double crops in the southern portion of the watershed, where the growing season is longer.

Nonetheless, the figures suggest a increase in the amount of land used for crops of several hundred thousand acres.

The report doesn't say where the plantings will take place. But if past patterns are followed in the states, nearly 60 percent of the additional acres would be planted in the Bay watershed.

Higher crop prices can provide a powerful incentive to help keep land in agriculture rather than being developed. But increased acreage could add up to more nutrient pollution reaching the Bay unless efforts are stepped up to control runoff.

"At a minimum, it would require greater costs to implement more best management practices to offset the increased acreage," Simpson said. Because there's already a shortfall in public money available to fund such runoff control practices, the increased implementation isn't likely to happen, he added.

A particular concern is that some new crop land will come from Conservation Reserve Program and Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program lands. In those programs, the USDA pays farmers to take environmentally sensitive lands out of production. In the decade-old CREP program, streamside lands were also planted with buffers to filter pollution.

But the 10-year contracts for the initial lands enrolled in CREP come up for renewal this year and officials have expressed concern that soaring crop prices could spur some farmers to return that acreage to production. That, they say, would result in a double blow to water quality, with streamside buffers being lost as high runoff crops are planted.

The annual USDA report is based on surveys of 86,000 farmers taken during the first two weeks of March. The estimated figures are usually within a few percent of the actual plantings, which are reported at the end of June.

"One thing farmers have told us this year, and something I've seen myself, is that growers are facing tremendously higher input costs-particularly for fertilizer and diesel fuel," Litterer said. "We need access to more affordable sources of natural gas for fertilizer production and we're concerned about the impact of higher crude oil prices on farmer profitability."

For more information on the Pennsylvania Fair Share Plan for Clean Water, visit the Fair Share Plan webpage. (Major portions of this article were reprinted from the Chesapeake Bay Journal, May 2008)

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5/9/2008