Global warming, increasing greenhouse gases and melting ice sheets are all dire predictions by the Nobel-Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but understanding the scientific assessments, future impacts on our lives, and the things we can do to mitigate the situation is not easy.

Now, in a new book, two Penn State climate scientists present the information from the most recent IPCC reports in easily understood, sometimes amusing explanations and illustrations.

"Dire Predictions, Understanding Global Warming: The Illustrated Guide to the Findings of the IPCC" has the answers to all your questions about global warming with the graphs, images and layout expected from international publisher DK, which specializes in popular illustrated reference books such as "The Way the Universe Works."

The authors of "Dire Predictions" are Michael E. Mann, associate professor of meteorology and director of the Earth System Science Center, and Lee R. Kump, professor of geosciences, both at Penn State.

"It was gratifying to see how the DK folks helped us take the scientific information and make it leap off the page," says Mann.

And leap it does, from various images of the Earth and a multitude of maps to a page of mosquitoes emphasizing the increase in infectious diseases with global warming, with something in nearly every page that will stop you to read the text.

"Working with the DK artists -- what they call their 'information architects' -- translating the information-packed diagrams produced for a more scientifically literate audience by the IPCC into more accessible visuals for the general public was very interesting," says Kump.

The book is very successful from the point of view of the reader. Dynamic images outline topics such as an undersea diver and coral reefs pointing to "How Human Activity Has Changed the Rules of the Game," or polar bears and a golden toad illustrating the "Highway to Extinction?"

The authors divide the book into five parts beginning with "Climate Change Basics." Here, specific questions like "What are the important greenhouse gases, and where do they come from?" and "How does modern warming differ from past warming trends?" open several articles. The second part, "Climate Change Projections," presents "Fossil Fuel Emissions Scenarios," "Future Changes in Extreme Weather" and "The Geographic Pattern of Future Warming."

The third section, "The Impacts of Climate Change," asks, "Is it Time to Sell the Beach House?" and includes discussion of "War," "Famine," "Pestilence and Death," to be followed by "Earth, Wind and Fire."

The final two chapters deal with "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change" and "Solving Global Warming." Articles such as "It's the Economy, Stupid!" show the costs of climate damage, mitigation and the benefits reaped. Other topics are "Keeping the Power Turned On," "Forests" and "Waste."

"I came in, knowing a great deal about the basic science so that part of the book was easier," says Mann. "I knew less about the projected impacts of climate change or the issue of climate change mitigation, so I had to study up on those areas."

The book covers not just the work of the IPCC Working Group One which covered "The Physical Science Basis," but also the work of Working Group Two, "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability," and Working Group Three, "Mitigation of Climate Change." While the three reports of the latest IPCC efforts are available online, each is well over 700 pages plus appendices for a total of over 2,000 pages.

In the book "Dire Predictions," Mann and Kump have boiled the essence down to five parts, with mostly two-page articles full of colorful graphics, for a total of just over 200 pages of engaging science. A key element is accurate information debunking the most commonly held misinformation about climate change.

"The most fun for me was collecting the misinformation out there and debunking the myths surrounding global warming," says Kump. Mann also thought finding and debunking the myths was fun.

These myths include the idea that carbon dioxide is causing the holes in the ozone, that the increase in carbon dioxide is the result of natural cycles, and the possibility that our atmosphere is not warming at all. The authors consider each myth or misunderstanding and explain any kernel of truth within and why the myths are untrue.

While the book is perfect for people interested in global climate change, it is also a good beginning for an introductory course in climate change for students not majoring in science. College, high student and middle school students and most adults would find the book an easy roadmap to understanding the global warming debate.

Dr. Kump can be contacted at 814-863-7823 or send email to: kump@geosc.psu.edu and Dr. Mann can be contact at 814-876-0485 or by sending email to: mann@meteo.psu.edu .

7/25/2008